In Honor of the Canadian Election

[katster]

...in Which Stephen Harper has well and truly earned his title of Prime Minister...

I have to ask the obvious question: How long can he keep it?

Introducing the:

Stephen Who? Poll
-or-
Will Alberta's Second Prime Minister Last As Long As the First?

(Okay, so Stephen Harper wasn't born in Alberta like Joe Clark, but he's firmly adopted it as his native province. We'll go with it.)

It's really simple, actually. How long will Stephen Harper hold together his happy minority government, and will it last as long as previous Albertan Prime Minister Joe Clark (Joe who?) managed to keep his government together? (Which, for those not in the know of Canadian politics, Joe's government lasted for nine months. As Will Ferguson said in Bastards and Boneheads, that's shorter than some pregnancies.)

Place all bets here. :)

Comments

[mrfnord.livejournal.com]

I predict that the Harper government will fall by or before July. Call it just short of six months even. Which I think might be a new record. ;)

[katster.livejournal.com]

# Joe Clark: 8 months, 28 days
# Kim Campbell: 4 months, 10 days
# John Turner: 2 months, 17 days
# Sir Charles Tupper: 2 months, 7 days

So, there's three shorter than Joe's record, but all three were given the reins with an impending election and managed to blow it. Joe (and Stephen, if you're right) did it from election to election. :)

-kat

[zibblsnrt.livejournal.com]

Put me down for two potential dates - mid-October or the first federal budget vote of this government.

[phenyx.livejournal.com]

Somebody pay the babysitter.

[bmbeaver.livejournal.com]

You know the Canadian election actually got an entire page in the San Jose Mercury News--amazing.

[fearghaill.livejournal.com]

I'm with Zib. How long does a new government have to produce a budget? I give the Tories that long, unless the budget is written by the Liberals.

[explorer-alpha.livejournal.com]

Yeah. I figure within a year there will be a government change.

[saavik.livejournal.com]

or written by the NDP.
(the Block are a non-issue, as any budget they may write could well be illegal.)

[fearghaill.livejournal.com]

Don't think that's possible, unless the NDP get the Liberals or Bloc on side as well. Conservative + NDP is 153 seats, 154 if they get the independant on side. Majority is 155.

[saavik.livejournal.com]

Perhaps I should have said "or dictated by the NDP".

What I meant was the Cons are not known for playing well with others, especially their more retrovert backbenchers( who were effectively muzzled in this campaign). I doubt if they could get 100% of their own party to support a budget that contained any significant compromises with any of the opposition parties.

[ms-interpret.livejournal.com]

My call? June 2007 election.

[leto-bucher.livejournal.com]

I'd say before the end of this year, at least